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Derby favorite faces long odds
Posted: Thursday May 11, 2000 06:48 PM
Ever since Fusaichi Pegasus won the Wood Memorial on April 15, he has been the overwhelming favorite to win Saturday's 126th running of the Kentucky Derby. Indeed, the colt has been so impressive while winning his four starts this year that many handicappers and racing writers believe he is one of the most prodigiously talented horses to run for the roses since Affirmed and Alydar faced off in 1978. For the last two decades, however, the mantle of Derby favorite has been more of an albatross than an honor. Spectacular Bid, who went off at 3-5 in 1979, was the last horse to win the race as the chalk, and such talented favorites as Arazi and Easy Goer have left Louisville with nothing to show for their efforts. So, while Fusaichi Pegasus should win on Saturday, it would hardly be a surprise if he lost. Here's a rundown of what -- besides recent history -- he'll have to overcome to reach the winner's circle at Churchill Downs:
Experience: If he reaches the wire first on Saturday, Fusaichi Pegasus would be one of the more lightly raced Derby winners in recent memory, with just five career starts; no horse with fewer than five has won the run for the roses since Exterminator did in it in 1918. Fusaichi Pegasus also never won as a two-year-old. In his only start of 1999, he finished second by a neck to David Copperfield in a Maiden race at Hollywood Park on December 11. The last horse to win the Derby after beginning his three-year-old campaign as a maiden was Proud Clarion in 1967. The Field: He may be the prohibitive favorite, but Fusaichi Pegasus certainly isn't scaring anyone. At least not yet. Saturday's Derby field, which will be finalized on Wednesday, is expected to swell to the 20-horse maximum. Churchill Downs doesn't have an especially wide racing strip, and so many horses leaving the starting gate at once can make the charge to the first turn a wooly experience. One of last year's favorites, General Challenge, was so battered by the end of the first 1/4 mile that he was never able to contend for the lead. Fusaichi Pegasus is, like General Challenge, a big horse, and not especially handy in heavy traffic. If this year's Derby proves to be rough going, smaller horses like Captain Steve, The Deputy or War Chant might have better luck maneuvering between foes. Himself: Quite possibly, the only horse that can beat Fusaichi Pegasus is Fusaichi Pegasus. Though his trainer, Neil Drysdale, insists the colt is just rambunctious, Fusaichi Pegasus has shown a penchant for misbehaving during his brief time in Kentucky. He routinely bucks during his morning workouts, and as he left the track last Thursday morning, he threw his exercise rider while rearing up before finally falling over on his back. Last month at the Wood, in front of barely more than 15,000 fans, he refused to be led to the starting gate during the post parade, standing stock still at the top of the far turn. That's not a promising sign, considering that on Saturday there will be close to 150,000 people cheering and heckling as he parades to the post. When informed of all the obstacles his horse will have to overcome this week, Drysdale is philosophical, but a little incredulous of all the criticism. "I know the press have to make ado about something because it's your job," he said last week. "This colt isn't that bad. Has anybody been watching him? He's fine. I can understand why you need to build up and create some controversy, but in my mind there isn't much." Get used to it, Neil. It's going to be a long week. Mark Beech is a Sports Illustrated reporter. Look for more Triple Crown
rankings and analysis as we come down the stretch and head for the Derby.
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