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Risky business Top teams having trouble trying to trade down
Updated: Thursday April 05, 2001 3:19 PM
The NFL Draft, now just over two weeks away, has risk written all over it. That's nothing new. But there's a different feel to this draft than with any other in recent history. Almost every team near the top would love to trade down in the first round, but no one can find a dance partner. The risk starts at the top, with near-certain No. 1 pick quarterback Michael Vick going to San Diego. He is a 6-foot runner, exposed to injury on nearly every dropback. He is inexperienced. He was the 36th-rated passer in Division I football last fall. You want risk? Paying Vick a $14 million signing bonus, that's risk. After Vick, you can throw about 15 guys into play. Any one of them could be a top-five pick. So I won't be so foolish this early as to pair players with teams, but I will tell you what NFL personnel people are thinking is a logical top 10 to kick off the April 21 lottery. At No. 2, Florida defensive tackle Gerard Warren is an excellent run player with a motor that doesn't always run high. Undersized running back LaDainian Tomlinson, all 5-10 of him, comes next. He is a package of terrific moves, durability and fine hands, and Cleveland could find him a good match with the third pick overall. The best projected left tackle in the draft, Florida's Kenyatta Walker, goes in our fourth spot, and he would be an excellent fit for the run-happy Bengals. Now comes the first real reach of the draft, Missouri pass-rusher Justin Smith. I'm putting him fifth overall, but without knowing what position he'll play in the NFL. He's a lot like the Boston College meteor of half-a-decade back, Mike Mamula, a pure passer rusher who the Eagles reached for but never found a consistent pro position. Smith is a 265-pounder who might be a defensive end, might be an outside linebacker. He goes this high because he's an athletic Pete Rose. Sixth overall is Michigan wideout David Terrell. Two points about him: Don't buy that his right-foot stress fracture of a year ago will bother him in the pros; it didn't even cause him to miss a practice at Michigan last season. But buy that NFL people think he's a prima donna. That could affect how high he goes. He would sorely tempt the Patriots at No. 6. Seven: Texas tackle Leonard Davis, a man-mountain most suited to right tackle. Eight: N.C. State wideout Koren Robinson, who broke most of Torry Holt's Wolfpack records and is a tall blazer. Nine: Florida State defensive end Jamal Reynolds, who will step in opening day for someone as a terrific outside pass-rusher. And 10: Richard Seymour, the Georgia defensive tackle. I can see Green Bay, owner of this pick, putting this worker-bee fireplug inside for the next 10 years as the long-term player Gilbert Brown never was. My surprise exclusion from the top 10? Mississippi's Deuce McAllister. I can't see the Browns or Bears, both running-back needy, picking a guy with a checkered injury history with such a crucial pick. Sports Illustrated senior writer Peter King covers the NFL beat for the magazine and is a regular contributor to CNNSI.com.
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