Who won the Gruden trade?

Oakland got the better of the deal, but Bucs didn't overpay

SAN DIEGO -- It's beautiful here. Not to gloat, of course. But let me get this out of the way first, as I sit here 19 floors above downtown San Diego, looking over my shoulder into a cloudless blue sky on a 69-degree late morning: The Super Bowl should take up permanent residence here. It's America's best city in late-January.

Now, on with the show.

Debate of the Week: Who got the better of the Jon Gruden trade?

Quick answer: The Raiders.

• King: Bucs' defense rests its case • Banks: Bucs' Johnson validated • Banks: No. 1 D the difference • Donovan: Raiders too slow • Donovan: Controversy burns Raiders • Statitudes: Havenots can have faith • Statitudes: By The Numbers • Mandel: Broadcast took its time • George: Super Bowl ads fun again

Smart answer: It's a classic trade-that-helps-both-teams deal.

Let's go back in time. Last February, Oakland owner Al Davis got the message loud and clear that his coach, Gruden, probably wouldn't sign a long-term contract with the Raiders when his deal expired at the end of the 2002 season. Lots of little reasons there, not the least of which was money. "Something had to give," Gruden said the other night after Tampa Bay won the NFC Championship. Davis made a deal with Tampa Bay for the Bucs' first- and second-round draft picks in 2002 and 2003, plus $8 million, in exchange for Gruden. Let's look at how each team made out:

OAKLAND

The $8 million is significant -- or is it? Each NFL franchise received about $70 million in TV revenue this year; so what if the Bucs, in effect, got only $62 million when you subtract the Gruden sum? Forget the money. The draft choices are a big deal. In 2002, Tampa Bay gave Oakland the 21st and 53rd picks in the draft. The Raiders dealt third- and fifth-round picks to trade up from No. 21 to No. 17, when they took cornerback/returner Phillip Buchanon. With Tampa Bay's second-round pick, Oakland picked tackle Langston Walker. Buchanon was an impact corner and return man until he broke his left wrist in October; that put him out for the year. Walker is an athletic tackle prospect who is not playing right now. Good picks, both. Buchanon may turn out to be the best defensive back to come out of the 2002 draft if he can stay healthy, and that includes Dallas safety Roy Williams. Oakland will also get, depending on the outcome of Sunday's game, one of the final two picks in both the first and second rounds of the 2003 draft.

Not only that, but Gruden's replacement, Bill Callahan, took over a contending team and made it a Super Bowl team. The issue of who should get the credit doesn't matter now. Callahan has taken the Raiders a step further than Gruden ever did -- to their first Super Bowl in 19 years.

TAMPA BAY

There are several ways to look at the Bucs' take from this deal. My HBO pal, Dan Marino, thinks it's absurd for any team to trade that much for a coach. He's partially right, of course; you need those high picks to build a great team. But I have to disagree. Does anyone think the Bucs would be in the Super Bowl right now with Tony Dungy at the helm? Nothing against Dungy -- I think he's one of the best coaches in the league -- but he had taken this team as far as he could. Gruden's Bucs won more games, 12, than any Dungy team did in a regular season. Dungy was 2-4 in the postseason; Gruden is 2-0 with the Bucs. No Dungy team won an NFC title. Gruden's first one did. Since the Bucs went over the .500 mark for good, in 1997, here's a comparison of how the Bucs under Dungy stack up against the 2002 Grundenbucs:

Bucs trend Year  W-L  Point Diff.  1997 (Dungy)  10-6  +36  1998 (Dungy)  8-8  +19  1999 (Dungy)  11-5  +35  2000 (Dungy)  10-6  +79  2001 (Dungy)  9-7  +44  2002 (Gruden)  12-4  +150

Let's look at the Bucs' two top picks from the 2000 and 2001 drafts. Guard Cosey Coleman and tackle Kenyatta Walker are starters; Walker has been yo-yoed in and out of the lineup, and neither player has approached Pro Bowl status. Linebacker Nate Webster and corner Dwight Smith are backups. Consider the question this way: If you're a Bucs fan, and I asked if you would rather have played this year without four players (Walker, Coleman, Webster and Smith) or without Gruden, what would you say? I know what I'd say: I'd rather have played with Gruden and without the other guys.

You're not going to get many, if any, Bucs players to fall into the trap of saying they're glad the Bucs fired Dungy. But don't kid yourself. They see now, especially after the 17-point win at Philadelphia in the NFC Championship Game, that they're lucky to have hitched themselves to Gruden's wagon.

AND IN CONCLUSION ...

Oakland got a much-needed infusion of youth in a cap-strapped era, and Oakland still reached to the Super Bowl without Gruden. Tampa Bay now has a coach who just might be the next Parcells or next Joe Gibbs in terms of long-range, high-quality results. And Gruden is only 39, for crying out loud. Tampa Bay owns the missing piece to its Super Bowl puzzle.

I'd agree Oakland got the better of it, I suppose. But I will also say this: Tampa Bay definitely, categorically, absolutely did not overpay.

WHY THE 'COVER 2' MANIA ALL OF A SUDDEN? From Tan Le of Calgary: "In the last two months, almost every football commentator has been talking about the 'Cover 2' scheme, which is most notably run by the Bucs. I am not a football expert, but the way I see it is the Bucs defense has been running this for years. Correct me if I am wrong, but they basically just let the front four pressure the quarterback and let the linebackers make plays, right? The '80s Giants did that all the time, same as the Ravens a couple years ago. Why did everyone start talking about it all of the sudden?"

Yes, the Bucs have been running it like that, in a way. The two safeties do such a good job of each patrolling half of the field behind the linebackers that the LBs are free to roam and pillage. "The key," cornerback Brian Kelly told me Tuesday morning, "is to have a great front four that can pressure the quarterback. Which we have." Now, we've all noticed how the Bucs have gone more to man coverage this year than in the past. Barber said Tuesday that it's the most aggressive this defense has been, and Kelly told me: "We maybe played pure Cover 2 only a third of what we've played it in the past. It's like anything in this game. Like the West Coast offense. Half the offensive coordinators in the league spend their offseasons trying to figure out how to beat our Cover 2, so we've played a little more man and zone than just strict Cover 2."

2. I think if there's one guy playing hard for his coach in this game it's going to be Tampa Bay's Joe Jurevicius. Last week, just before Jurevicius left the team to be with his wife for the birth of their son, Gruden told him: "You're going to have the greatest week of your life. You're going to go home, be with your son, and get him healthy." Nothing about football. Joey J., as Giants fans called him, would walk on glass for the guy. Gruden on Jurevicius: "I think he's going to be one of the great receivers in this league for a long time." Wow.

3. I think tomorrow's column will be Oakland-heavy. The Raiders aren't going to face the press until 3:30 ET today, so they're not on a good timetable for today's deadline.

4. I think Gruden said all the right things Tuesday morning about Callahan and the Raiders. He has no reason to hold anything against them. They worked hard for him, and got him one of the sweetest deals in coaching history.

5. I think this is going to be one of the most difficult Super Bowls to predict. I'm not sure which way I'll go, though I'm leaning very, very slightly toward Oakland now. We'll see how the week goes.

Sports Illustrated senior writer Peter King covers the NFL beat for the magazine and is a regular contributor to CNNSI.com. He will file daily for CNNSI.com throughout Super Bowl week. Click here to send him a comment.

 

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